posts i'm currently stuck on writing
meta post lol.
ml stuff
I've been trying to put together a post on ML timelines and I keep getting stuck cause I feel like I'm being squeezed from both sides.
I don't think my projections are too off-base. But it's weird enough that the non-ML techie friends of mine don't think it's great.1
I actually even think most of the non-doomer friends I've got probably think my timelines are too short. And I guess when I play with the models a little more myself too, I don't entirely blame them; we'll get there but data quality being too low and data taking too long to collect could always slow things down...
But then of course, the timeline projections there are probably too long for the doomer-y friends, cause they'll all circular on the walls of text from the EA-y folks.
(For what it's worth: my feeling right now is that we'll need another 2 or 3 GPT generations -- which translates to roughly 2-5 years -- to get to ML that can do 90% of tasks as 90% human. It's like, bullshit intuition mostly projecting out from what the generations have been so far, which is maybe a little dumb, but it doesn't feel wrong exactly either, other than the fact that the current models still fall over.
Then on top of that, another idk, 3-5 years of unclear, muddy stuff as folks figure out what it means for these systems to exist. And that'll happen just slightly too quick for the enforcement systems to catch up.)
dating doc?
i think i'm maybe getting closer to getting this to where i want it to be. finally realized that focusing on "what I want to get out of dating" and "how am I prioritizing things" are the useful bits, more so than the "hi who am i"
travel log
This one should be sorta easy and mindless but I guess there's a bunch of photos I'm procrastinating on sorting through.
other stuff?
i think i might have a "leave, or if you really want to fight it, call them out for sucking in the ways strongly correlated with the minority thing, without bringing up the minority thing at all" post in me.
i should also clean up the UI on my personal site
there's also allll the different lisssssts of potential topics that i've got floating around but let's see
One of them recently made the comment about how we can always just turn the power switch off in the data centers... which isn't false per-say, but is a lot more challenging if you're dealing with multiple entities with contradictory incentives. Something something coordination problem.↩